A Co-Integration Analysis Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Development in Hebei Province
Huiru Zhao,
Yaowen Fan,
Nana Li,
Fuqiang Li,
Yuou Hu
Issue:
Volume 4, Issue 4-1, August 2015
Pages:
1-6
Received:
18 March 2015
Accepted:
26 April 2015
Published:
15 July 2015
Abstract: Electricity is a convenient and clean energy which can provide strong support for the development of all walks of life. The power development should maintain coordination with the regional economic development, in which power development may advance sometimes. Hebei province is a typical resource-based area in China, and its power consumption is closely related to economic development, which makes it important to study the relationship between electricity and economic development in Hebei. In order to select the economic factors affecting electricity demand, the gray correlation analysis is used to analyse the correlation among different factors. And then, a long-term equilibrium model between electricity consumption and economic factors is proposed through co-integration analysis. The analysis result showed that the electricity consumption, GDP, the level of residential consumption, efficiency levels and economic structures have a long-run equilibrium relationship in Hebei Province, in which the economic structure has the strongest impact on the electricity consumption, followed by GDP, energy consumption intensity and the residential consumption level. Currently, the impact of the economic restructuring on electricity demand in Hebei cannot be overlooked. Furthermore, this model can be used to give a reference to Hebei Electric Power Planning.
Abstract: Electricity is a convenient and clean energy which can provide strong support for the development of all walks of life. The power development should maintain coordination with the regional economic development, in which power development may advance sometimes. Hebei province is a typical resource-based area in China, and its power consumption is cl...
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Decomposition of Electricity Consumption Intensity of High Energy-consuming Industries in Shanxi Province Based on LMDI Method
Issue:
Volume 4, Issue 4-1, August 2015
Pages:
7-11
Received:
18 May 2015
Accepted:
14 June 2015
Published:
15 July 2015
Abstract: In this paper, the electricity consumption intensity of the high energy-consuming industries in Shanxi province from2007 -2012 is decomposed based on LMDI method, in which the affecting factors involve structure effect and intensity effect. The results show that the structure adjustment of Shanxi province is the main driver which declines the electricity consumption intensity for high energy-consuming industries. For most industries, the structure effect declines the intensity with a high contribution proportion. Meanwhile, the contribution proportions of efficiency effect for most industries are less than the corresponding structure effect. The totla effect of each high energy-consuming industry is shown in table 4, in which the totoal effect of Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry is relative higher than other industries, and the effect of Black metal smelting and rolling processing industry is just smaller than it.
Abstract: In this paper, the electricity consumption intensity of the high energy-consuming industries in Shanxi province from2007 -2012 is decomposed based on LMDI method, in which the affecting factors involve structure effect and intensity effect. The results show that the structure adjustment of Shanxi province is the main driver which declines the elect...
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Electricity Demand Prediction of Beijing during the 13th Five-year
Na-na Li,
Hui-ru Zhao,
Ming-rui Zhao
Issue:
Volume 4, Issue 4-1, August 2015
Pages:
12-16
Received:
14 May 2015
Accepted:
14 June 2015
Published:
3 August 2015
Abstract: With the emergence of a “new economic norm” and the development of “economic integration in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei”, electricity demand situation in Beijing will change significantly in the future. To guide the planning and construction of power grid in Beijing, it is indispensable to predict electricity demand during the 13th Five-year. Since the factors and affecting mechanisms for electricity demand are different in different sectors, the total electricity consumption in this paper is divided into five parts: the first industry, industry, construction industry, the tertiary industry and resident sectors. The exponential smoothing method and co-integration theory are introduced to establish the forecasting model of electricity demand in different sectors. Therefore, based on the forecasting model and scenario analysis, the analysis results show that the total electricity consumption will grow at an annual rate of 4.9%-6.0% during 13th Five-Year-Plan period, and the consumption would reach more than 0.1397×1012 kWh in 2020.
Abstract: With the emergence of a “new economic norm” and the development of “economic integration in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei”, electricity demand situation in Beijing will change significantly in the future. To guide the planning and construction of power grid in Beijing, it is indispensable to predict electricity demand during the 13th Five-year. Since ...
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